What’s driving the day in Brussels.
By NICHOLAS VINOCUR
with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH
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Greetings, and welcome to Brussels Playbook. I’m Nick Vinocur, honored to walk you through the news on this fine Monday morning (I’m trying to manifest some sunshine here, folks). This week, we welcome two new authors to our Brussels Playbook lineup: Sarah Wheaton and Eddy Wax. Welcome aboard, both! — now let’s go:
DRIVING THE DAY: HUNGARY IN FOCUS
BELGIUM URGES EU TO BREAK OUT ITS LEGAL BAZOOKA: Belgium isn’t letting go of its EU presidency quietly. Less than a month before handing over the keys to Hungary, Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib told POLITICO the EU shouldn’t tremble in the face of Hungary’s rule-of-law violations — and advocated stripping Budapest of its ability to veto European policy at the leaders’ table.
Nuclear option: “I think we need to have the courage to make decisions,” Lahbib told my colleagues Camille Gijs and Barbara Moens, urging the EU to “go right to the end” of its Article 7 censure procedure, an extraordinary step that could result in Hungary having its voting rights suspended.
Why now? The mood toward Hungary in other EU capitals is hardening. Major decisions on top jobs, Ukraine aid and enlargement are coming up at the European Council table in June. Hungary is about to take over the EU’s rotating presidency. Leaders are increasingly concerned that Budapest could derail the bloc’s agenda at a critical juncture for Europe and the world.
Tough love: The conclusion, per Lahbib, is that Brussels needs to get over its fear of confrontation and trigger the toughest parts of Article 7 — those that allow a qualified majority to strip a country of “certain of the rights deriving from the application of the Treaties to the member state in question.”
It’s time: “This is a moment of truth,” Lahbib said. “Either we face up to our responsibilities, which requires political courage and willpower. Or we put in place mechanisms that don’t work. And so we have to choose.”
The EU has no choice, she believes: “If we go all the way with this mechanism, it must work,” Lahbib added. “If it doesn’t work, we have to reform it. That’s the future of the European Union.”
Hungary’s response: “Hungary’s main concern now is to keep the EU out of the war in our neighbourhood,” a spokesperson for Hungary’s permanent representation to the EU told my colleagues. “If war reaches the EU, then Article 7 will be the least of our problems.”
Background: Hungary has been under Article 7 proceedings since 2018, amid a seemingly neverending legal standoff with Brussels. The European Commission has frozen funds for Hungary in an attempt to force Budapest to enact judicial reforms. It unblocked €10 billion as a reward for a commitment to some reforms, though billions of euros remain frozen.
Increasing defiance: Several EU countries and the European Parliament argue that Hungary doesn’t deserve to be let off the hook. Parliament has taken the Commission to court over its decision to unfreeze the funds. Meanwhile, Budapest has become more defiant, using its veto rights to block aid for Ukraine and cozying up with Moscow and Beijing (such as this recent love-in with Chinese President Xi Jinping). Yet Brussels has been reluctant to escalate the standoff with Hungary.
What’s stopping them? Nobody knows how Hungary will react. Diplomats warn of myriad consequences: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could become more popular. Pro-EU sentiment could collapse. Budapest could be driven further into the arms of Moscow and Beijing (as if they weren’t most of the way there).
There’s also unease about the ‘novelty’ of Article 7 itself.The procedure was introduced under the Amsterdam Treaty in 1999 to safeguard fundamental rights at a time when the EU was ushering in countries from the former Soviet Union. It took the EU nearly 20 years to use it, and then it was only due to pressure from Parliament.
Lessons from history: In 2000, EU countries introduced diplomatic sanctions against Austria after the election of a far-right government. Contrary to a common misconception, this wasn’t under Article 7 — but its political lessons have come to overshadow that process. When anti-EU sentiment in Austria surged, the other countries quickly backtracked and ended the sanctions after a few months. Once bitten, EU leaders were twice shy. There was a political cost, the wisdom goes, to isolating a member state.
But does that still hold? Europe was a different place 24 years ago. It was calmer, more insouciant before 9/11. Russia hadn’t launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Vienna hadn’t spent years antagonizing Brussels over the rule-of-law. If EU leaders were hasty in punishing Austria back then, they’re now, in Lahbib’s view, taking too much time to deal with Hungary.
Bottom line: Lahbib’s intervention may not suddenly change the minds of those in European capitals who are hesitant to take harder action against Budapest — but an EU foreign minister publicly raising the possibility is in itself remarkable.
ZELENSKYY HITS CHINA
UKRAINE TAKES OFF GLOVES WITH BEIJING: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used an appearance at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore to take aim at China in unusually blunt terms, accusing Beijing of working with Russia to undermine an international peace summit to be held this month.
‘We see you’: “Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit,” Zelenskyy said, referring to a gathering due to take place in Switzerland on June 15-16.Read the full account by Zoya Sheftalovich, Suzanne Lynch and Stuart Lau here.
Sitting it out: China revealed in recent days that it wouldn’t send a representative to Switzerland, dealing a blow to hopes of meaningful progress at the gathering. Ukrainian officials have been working hard to convince “Global South” countries to join the conference, which takes place directly after a G7 meeting in Rome. China’s presence would have put pressure on Moscow. Its absence will have ominous overtones.
Getting out the vote: That hasn’t stopped Zelenskyy from crossing the world to convince leaders to join. He met U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Timor-Leste’s President José Ramos-Horta and Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto in Singapore. Last month, Zelenskyy’s head of office, Andriy Yermak, met with EU Council chief Charles Michel, as well as dozens of diplomats, to preach the good word on the Switzerland conference.
Kyiv’s aims: Zelenskyy is looking to build an international consensus around nuclear security, food security and the release of prisoners of war, as well as on the futures of Ukrainian children who’ve been abducted by Russia. An agreement among participants could be presented to Russia as the basis for a future peace deal, a non-EU diplomat told Playbook last month.Zelenskyy confirmed this was the plan during his Shangri-La Dialogue address.
Et tu, Biden? Ukraine has convinced 106 countries, including most EU states to join, per Zelenskyy. But China’s absence is dampening hopes — as is the fact that U.S. President Joe Biden hasn’t confirmed he will come, despite being in Italy for the G7 meeting. Biden is in the midst of an election battle. Still: priorities.
‘No-limits friendship’: Beijing’s decision not to send even a low-ranking official underscores the growing coordination between Russia and China.
Don’t poke the dragon-bear: Yet there seems to be little appetite in the EU to speak out about this geopolitical tie-up, which some analysts call the “dragon-bear.” Asked about the extent of China’s aid to Russia, the EU’s top envoy Josep Borrell said he had seen no evidence that China had provided direct military support to Russia. “China has committed not to supply arms [to Russia] and we don’t have evidence that this is happening,” Borrell told journalists.
That jarred with Washington’s line: U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell called Beijing’s support for Russia a “sustained, comprehensive effort that is backed up by the leadership in China that is designed to give Russia every support behind the scenes.”
NO-LIMITS FRIENDSHIP AIN’T CHEAP:TheFT reportedovernight that the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline deal between Moscow and Beijing is deadlocked over price and supply levels. China wants to pay close to Russia’s heavily subsidised domestic prices, the paper reports, and only commit to buying a small fraction of the pipeline’s planned annual capacity. Russia’s not happy with that proposal — but has limited bargaining power.
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EU ELECTION
VDL’S ROAD TO 361: In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen secured her job as European Commission president by a razor-thin majority in the the European Parliament — only nine votes. This year, the numbers game required to secure a second term from a potentially much more hostile European Parliament looks even tougher. There is a very real chance the German conservative just won’t get the votes after the June 6-9 EU election. Break out your calculator and do the math with us here. It will go down to the wire.
Von der Leyen was in Bulgaria on Sunday, where she met former PM Boyko Borissov. She tweeted a picture of Borissov handing her a bouquet of flowers.
WHAT THE EU ELECTIONS ARE REALLY ABOUT: We’ve all heard the tired phrase that the European Parliament elections aren’t really one election, but 27. Hell, we might even have said it here a few times. But nothing quite drives the message home like this story, which draws on POLITICO’s entire newsroom to examine the issues driving voters in all 27 EU countries. Read it here.
FIDESZ IS OUTSPENDING EVERYONE ONLINE: With politicians and parties ramping up their spending on online ads in a final mad dash for votes ahead of this week’s European Parliament election, POLITICO dug into the numbers. Our analysis shows that right-wing parties have been bombarding users of Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and Google with key campaign messages — and none have spent as big as Orbán’s party.
These paid-for messages aren’t exactly subtle, my colleagues report. In ad after ad, Fidesz has portrayed its left-wing opponents as beholden to Brussels and mega-donors like George Soros. In others, Hungary’s ruling party positioned itself as the “peace party,” accusing opponents of favoring war. Click here to see what other parties have been doing in this space.
IN OTHER NEWS
GAZA PEACE PLAN UNCERTAIN: The White House is pushing Israel to agree to a permanent cease-fire in the Gaza Strip, but a peace plan proposed by President Biden has exposed a gaping division in the administration of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said on Sunday the Biden administration expects Israel to accept the plan if Hamas does.
But Netanyahu may face a choice between accepting the truce and the survival of his government. A senior foreign policy adviser told the U.K.’s Sunday Times the proposal is “not a good deal” but Israel has accepted it. But right-wing members of Netanyahu’s ruling coalition described the proposal as “total surrender” to Hamas and threatened to collapse the government if it was enacted, the FT reported.
DUTCH TURN AWAY FROM FREE TRADE: With radical-right politician Geert Wilders forging a new Dutch coalition that includes the protectionist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), The Hague’s support for free trade could soon give way to a policy stance that looks a lot like French-style strategic autonomy. Giorgio Leali, Camille and Koen Verhelst report on a massive shift in the EU’s historic club of free-trading nations.
STARMER’S DIPLOMATIC TIGHTROPE: If Labour Leader Keir Starmer becomes U.K. prime minister after the July 4 election, as the polls suggest, he’ll likely find himself sitting next to Biden at the NATO summit within days — the first step in what Labour hopes would be a new “special relationship” between the U.S. and U.K. My colleague Dan Bloom examines how Starmer and his team are laying the ground for a closer alliance with Washington even if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
AGENDA
— Council President Charles Michel meets Commission Executive Vice President Maroš Šefčovič at 1 p.m. … meets with Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajić at 2:30 p.m. … has a phone call with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis at 3:30 p.m. … has a phone call with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer at 4 p.m.
— Commission Vice President MargaritisSchinasis in Amman, Jordan; meets with religious representatives … meets with King Abdullah II of Jordan.
— Cohesion and Reforms Commissioner ElisaFerreirais in Berlin, Germany; delivers a speech at the Bundestag EU Affairs Committee followed by a press statement … meets with Germany’s Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck.
— Neighborhood and Enlargement Commissioner OlivérVárhelyiis in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina; participates in the third high level political forum … meets the chair of Bosnia’s council of ministers Borjana Krišto. Press statements at 5:30 p.m. Watch.
— Energy Commissioner KadriSimson isin Tokyo, Japan; delivers a keynote speech at theJapan energy summit and exhibition … participates in the Japan-EU hydrogen high level business forum … meets with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida … with Minister for Economy, Trade and Industry Ken Saitō.
— Innovation Commissioner IlianaIvanovais in Namur, Belgium; delivers a keynote speech at the flagship conference Indtech2024 on “science and innovation to empower EU industrial resilience and economic security” … delivers a video message at the event on “beyond borders and boundaries: 20 years of Erasmus Mundus.”
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BRUSSELS CORNER
WEATHER: High of 19C, cloudy.
NATIONAL STRIKE — POSSIBLE TRAVEL DISRUPTION: Union protests against EU austerity rules are going ahead today in Brussels, Bruges, So, Genk, Namur, Mons and Liège. Disruptions are expected on TEC and De Lijn buses in Wallonia and Flanders, although transport authorities in Brussels have said STIB and SNCB services should not be affected. Strikes could also take place at Charleroi Airport.
FARMERS PROTEST: Also be prepared for a large demonstration by farmers with tractors on Tuesday, which is expected to cause traffic disruptions from early in the morning until late afternoon across the Brussels region.
TRAM TRACK WORKS: STIB is carrying out work on the tram tracks on Avenue de Tervueren, which will interrupt services on trams 8, 39 and 44. Replacement buses will run until the end of August.
IXELLES STAIRS TO FINALLY OPEN: The staircase connecting Rue Gray in Ixelles with the area surrounding the European Parliament will open at the end of June, almost a year after its inauguration, Bruzz reports.
IT’S WORLD BICYCLE DAY: To celebrate, Brussels Mobility has encouraged students, teachers and parents to ride to school today. It expects 5,200 students from nearly 60 schools across the city to participate.
Another one for cyclists: Registrations are still open for the 40-kilometer BXL Tour which races through the streets of the city on Sunday June 16.
COMEDY:Brussels Belly Laughs is hosting another lineup of international comedians at La Plume Persée in Ixelles on June 7. Get tickets here.
BRUSSELS RENAISSANCE FESTIVAL: The celebration of a flourishing era in the city’s history kicked off on Sunday and will run until July 5, with events including the medieval Ommegang gala in the Grand Place.
BIRTHDAYS: Former MEP Mara Bizzotto; POLITICO’s Bjarke Smith-Meyer; German jurist Sabine Lautenschläger, formerly a member of the ECB’s executive board; Katharina Erdmenger of the German perm rep to the EU; Labcorp’s Deborah Civico; Societe Generale-Forge’s Stéphane Blemus; The Schuman Show’s Kelly Agathos; Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani; former President of Cuba Raúl Castro.
THANKS TO: Camille Gijs, Barbara Moens, Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter Ketrin Jochecová and producer Dato Parulava.
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