“Someone once told me, ‘Time is a flat circle.’ Everything we’ve ever done or will do, we’re gonna do over and over and over again.” — Rust Cohle in “True Detective” (2014)
So, basically, life is nothing if not predictable? Perhaps.
My apologies to Matthew McConaughey’s seminal character and Friedrich Nietzsche for the oversimplification, but it’s fair to say neither have ever tried their hand at prognosticating the NFL Draft. Although, both possessed the necessary skill-set to do it well.
Of the thousands of draft eligible football players, only hundreds have a shot to even be considered an NFL prospect.
Out of those hundreds, 257 will be drafted over the next three days in Detroit. NFL teams will sign another 10-20 undrafted rookies, on average, after the festivities to fill out their 90-man preseason rosters.
Less than 2 percent actually make it into the league every year.
Anyone who has ever solved a large jigsaw puzzle knows it’s better to work on one section at a time instead of trying to place pieces throughout the puzzle.
The players are one section, and a pretty straightforward piece of the puzzle, much like the border.
Trying to interpret a small army of scouts and coaches, while attempting to mind meld with 32 general managers who treat their draft boards like a proprietary secret akin to Google’s algorithm is much more complicated, but it’s the challenge that keeps me coming back.
Cohle was paraphrasing Nietzsche’s book “Thus Spoke Zarathustra,” which is one of several places where he wrote about the concept of “eternal recurrence.”
Eternal recurrence is the idea that, because time is endless, everything will eventually repeat itself, and therefore, your life will repeat an infinite number of times, exactly the same way each time.
The idea is supposed to be great news, assuming you make your life into something you want to relive an infinite number of times.
This is the 12th NFL Draft I’ve attempted to decipher as a professional, with varying degrees of success, and it feels like an infinite number of lifetimes since I began this journey. The world was a very different place in 2013.
Indeed, the draft process is such a winding road, we’re miles away from when I wrote USC quarterback Caleb Williams would be selected first overall in my way-too-early 2024 NFL Mock Draft.
In fact, it was last May.
After the Chicago Bears fulfill my promise, the draft will actually begin with the No. 2 overall pick, where rampant speculation has cycled through North Carolina’s Drake Maye, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy for which QB the Washington Commanders covet.
The Super Bowl of the offseason is like Christmas in April for me.
In a parallel universe somewhere, I’m a detective or philosopher and that last sentence makes sense.
Happy Draft Day!
Here’s an in-depth breakdown of all the possibilities for the first round of this year’s NFL Draft, including where quarterbacks could go and who might make trades Thursday night in primetime:
1. Chicago from Carolina
Pick: Caleb Williams (USC)
Nothing’s official until the commissioner says the name, but the draft really begins with the second overall pick.
Plan B: None.
The fact Hall of Famer Sid Luckman, who starred in the 1940s, is universally accepted as the greatest quarterback in franchise history speaks volumes.
Wild card: None.
Thirty-one of 32 NFL teams have had a QB throw at least 30 touchdown passes in a season — and then there are the Chicago Bears, whose single-season passing TD record is 29, held by undrafted journeyman Erik Kramer. Mike Tomczak, Rex Grossman, Cade McNown, Jimmy Clausen and Broncos head coach Sean Payton are just a few of the names who have quarterbacked the Bears since the team last won a Super Bowl.
2. Washington
Pick: Jayden Daniels (LSU)
This pick has been trending towards Daniels for a while, and while there are fans of the other available signal-callers inside the building, it’s looking like the consensus favors the Heisman Trophy winner.
Plan B: Drake Maye (North Carolina)
The hiring of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is what locked a lot of people into Daniels being the pick here, because Kingsbury’s system favors a dual-threat quarterback. Maye is far from being a statue in the pocket. He had 56 carries of 10-plus yards the last two seasons. Only Daniels had more.
Wild card: J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
Both owner Josh Harris and General Manager Adam Peters are proponents of utilizing analytics, which are very favorable for McCarthy.
3. New England
Pick: Maye
I’ve never wavered in believing the Patriots will make a pick here and it’s likely whomever Washington passes on between Daniels and Maye.
Plan B: Trade down
Unlike the Commanders, de facto GM Eliot Wolf will probably truly entertain trading down if the price is right. The “Godfather” offer could come from the Giants or Vikings, who both covet Maye. The Raiders could get involved if Daniels remains on the board.
Wild card: Wide receiver or tackle
Both are positions of great need. What if the Patriots throw the draft’s first curve ball and select Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio St.) or Joe Alt (Notre Dame)?
4. Arizona
Pick: Harrison
I also had the Cardinals selecting the No. 1 player on my Big Board in my way-too-early 2024 NFL Mock Draft back in May. This has felt inevitable for quite some time.
Plan B: Trade down
Many have suggested lightning could strike twice for GM Monti Ossenfort, and he could do a deal with the Vikings or Broncos so they could grab McCarthy, and then trade back up, perhaps with the Chargers, and select Harrison. That’s almost exactly what Ossenfort pulled off last season in drafting another Buckeyes standout, offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. Honestly, what are the odds?
Wild card: Wide receiver
There are a bunch of teams who have Malik Nabers (LSU) and even a few with Rome Odunze (Washington) as the top receiver in this draft class. I don’t believe Arizona is one of them, but we’ll see.
5. L.A. Chargers
Pick: Tackle
Everything I know about Jim Harbaugh’s and GM Joe Hortiz’s team-building background says this pick will either be Alt or JC Latham (Alabama).
Plan B: Wide receiver
It’ll be hard to pass on Harrison if he’s still available.
Wild card: Trade down
Perhaps they auction off the pick to the Vikings, Broncos or potentially the Giants so one of those teams can draft McCarthy. Do a deal with the G-Men, stockpiling more draft assets and still getting your guy the following pick would be a feather in the cap of a first-time GM.
6. N.Y. Giants
Pick: Wide receiver
Big Blue hasn’t had a true No. 1 receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. Both Nabers and Odunze would make sense here.
Plan B: Trade up
If Maye is available at No. 3, I could see GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll pushing their chips into the middle of the table, and striking a deal with the Patriots to secure Daniel Jones’ replacement.
Wild card: Alt
If the Cardinals and Chargers both take receivers, the Giants would likely have Alt higher on their draft board than whomever is remaining of the top three receivers, and they had a ton of issues on the offensive line last season.
7. Tennessee
Pick: Tackle
GM Ran Carthon is keeping his fingers and toes crossed in hopes Alt is available, but he’d be fine with Latham as well.
Plan B: Trade down
A team looking to leapfrog the Falcons for the top defensive player on their board or a top-tier receiver will likely be blowing up Carthon’s phone.
Wild card: Wide receiver
If there’s one of the top three receivers who may go lower than expected (but not outside of the top-10), it’s Nabers.
8. Atlanta
Pick: Defense
Mock drafts have rubber-stamped edge rusher Dallas Turner (Alabama) here since the Falcons tampered with and signed Kirk Cousins in free agency, but Byron Murphy (Texas), Laiatu Latu (UCLA), Jared Verse (Florida St.) and even cornerbacks Terrion Arnold (Alabama) or Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) make sense.
Plan B: Trade down
If another team favors one of those players, and it isn’t who Atlanta is targeting, it would behoove GM Terry Fontenot to move back a few spots, stockpile some picks and still get his guy.
Wild card: Quarterback
There’s simply been too much smoke surrounding the Falcons and Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) for me to ignore at this point.
9. Chicago
Pick: Falling star
Odunze didn’t just take the same flight to Detroit for the draft with Williams, he also reportedly has already worked out with the QB and Chicago’s two star receivers Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. I’m not sure the Washington receiver lasts this long, but I’m officially convinced he won’t fall any further if he’s available here.
Plan B: Trade down
The Bears only have four picks in this draft and more holes in their roster outside of QB.
Wild card: Brock Bowers (Georgia)
This would surprise some considering Chicago already has a young and talented tight end in Cole Kmet, but if GM Ryan Poles is utilizing the preferred Best Player Available strategy, Bowers would be it.
10. N.Y. Jets
Pick: Tackle
The litmus test is if GM Joe Douglas is in charge, this pick will almost certainly be an offensive tackle despite signing Tyron Smith and trading for Morgan Moses. Taliese Fuaga (Oregon St.) could play guard as a rookie and provide important insurance for the two veterans.
Plan B: Bowers
If assistant GM Aaron Rodgers has a say (and I think he does), I believe the two-time Mackey Award winner would be his choice.
Wild card: Trade up
Depending on who holds sway, the Jets are all-in on chasing a Super Bowl next season and could make a big move to secure a top-tier tackle or receiver. Odunze actually reminds me of one of Rodgers’ former favorite targets, Davante Adams.
11. Minnesota
Pick: Trade up
By securing the No. 23 overall pick from the Texans, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has enough trade ammunition to jump into the top five and draft a QB. The problem is Maye is their top target and he’s only in play if he falls to the third-pick because the Commanders aren’t dealing.
Plan B: Trade up
If Maye is off the board, then it becomes a “will they or won’t they?,” with teams looking to trade back to see if they can land McCarthy.
Wild card: Stay put
Or maybe McCarthy falls in their lap here and the Vikings call the league’s bluff.
12. Denver
Pick: Trade up
The Broncos have eight picks in this draft, but they don’t have a second-rounder, which might hinder them in any potential deal to move up for a QB. They’d almost certainly have to include corner Patrick Surtain Jr., receiver Courtland Sutton or tackle Garrett Boles in the trade with future draft assets.
Plan B: Trade down
Preferably, if he can’t strike a deal in the top five, GM George Paton would be able to trade down and still draft Bo Nix (Oregon). The Heisman finalist could thrive in Sean Payton’s offense.
Wild card: Bowers
Considering Payton’s history as a play-caller, the Georgia tight end would make a lot of sense.
13. Las Vegas
Pick: Trade up
The Raiders really want Daniels, but I can’t imagine what it would cost to get the Commanders to move this far back.
Plan B: Cornerback or tackle
I believe coach Antonio Pierce favors Alabama’s Arnold at corner, but new GM Tom Telesco would likely favor Latham or Fuaga if they’re available or even an elite pass-protector like Olu Fashanu (Penn St.).
Wild card: Penix
Could Las Vegas pull the trigger on the Huskies gunslinger if they fail in trading up for Daniels? Possibly, he certainly fits the type of vertical offense Pierce talked about wanting in his introductory press conference.
14. New Orleans
Pick: Tackle
The Saints currently have two former first-rounders on their offensive line who aren’t playing up to their potential.
Plan B: Cornerback
It’s very possible GM Mickey Loomis could deal shutdown corner (when healthy) Marshon Lattimore during the draft.
Wild card: Trade up
Over the past 16 NFL Drafts, Loomis has traded up 26 times, and hasn’t traded down once. New Orleans has nine picks in this draft (and Lattimore), and could potentially jump into the top 10 for an offensive tackle or receiver.
15. Indianapolis
Pick: Cornerback
The Colts finished 16th last season in passing yards allowed despite having the fifth-most sacks. GM Chris Ballard prefers high-level athletes with elite traits, so Toledo’s Mitchell, Cooper DeJean (Iowa) and Nate Wiggins (Clemson) all fit the bill.
Plan B: Wide receiver
Speaking of elite traits, Xavier Worthy (Texas) and Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) would pair nicely with QB Anthony Richardson’s premium arm strength.
Wild card: Trade up
Ballard could target Bowers or Mitchell, but both have a shot at going inside the first 12 picks.
16. Seattle
Pick: Trenches
GM John Schneider will look to upgrade the offensive line and defensive line in this draft. Texas’ Murphy would fit new head coach Mike Macdonald’s scheme perfectly, but could be long gone. Versatile O-lineman Troy Fautanu (Washington) makes a lot of sense too.
Plan B: Trade down
Schneider is more adept than most at moving down the draft board and could still land a starting offensive or defensive lineman towards the end of the round.
Wild card: Quarterback or DeJean
The Seahawks are dark-horse picks to select a QB on the first two days of the draft, and the versatile Iowa defensive back would be a tremendous fit for Macdonald’s defense.
17. Jacksonville
Pick: Cornerback or wide receiver
The Jaguars haven’t had a true shutdown corner since they traded Jalen Ramsey, and they’re still smarting from Calvin Ridley signing with the Titans.
Plan B: Trade up
If GM Trent Baalke is targeting a top-tier corner or receiver, he’ll almost certainly have to move from up from here.
Wild card: Trade for a player
Could this pick be dealt to the 49ers for wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk?
18. Cincinnati
Pick: Tackle
Free agency created two major voids for the Bengals with the losses of offensive tackle Jonah Williams and defensive tackle DJ Reader, but maintaining the health of Joe Burrow will always be priority No. 1.
Plan B: Defensive tackle
Murphy and Jer’Zhan Newton (Illinois) aren’t as big as Reader, but they’re the best this draft has to offer.
Wild card: Playmaker
Wide receiver Tee Higgins could be dealt during the draft, prompting Cincy to target a replacement.
19. L.A. Rams
Pick: Pass rusher
The Rams’ defense underwent a youth movement last season, and that will continue after future first-ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Donald decided he had better things to do than haunt the dreams of opposing quarterbacks and offensive coordinators. Verse and Latu could still be on the board.
Plan B: Tackle
This may be Amarius Mims’ (Georgia) ceiling.
Wild card: Bo Nix (Oregon)
GM Les Snead was a grad assistant at Auburn in 1993 when Bo’s father, Patrick, starred there.
20. Pittsburgh
Pick: Offensive line
With the QB questions laid to rest, GM Omar Khan still must find a center and a replacement for Dan Moore Jr. at tackle in this draft. Graham Barton (Duke) can play both positions.
Plan B: Cornerback or wide receiver
Father Time and trading Diontae Johnson to the Panthers make both positions a priority.
Wild card: Trade up
The top-tier prospects at both corner and receiver will be long gone by now.
21. Miami
Pick: Offensive line
With QB Tua Tagovailoa nearing the end of his rookie contract, and an extension north of $200 million in the works, the O-line is GM Chris Grier’s top priority. Fautanu, Mims, Barton, Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma) and Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon) could all be in play here.
Plan B: Defensive line
Murphy or Newton would be hard to pass on considering the loss of Christian Wilkins in free agency.
Wild card: Trade down
Miami only has six picks in the draft and none in the third or fourth rounds.
22. Philadelphia
Pick: Cornerback
Philly’s aging secondary struggled mightily last season, especially down the stretch.
Plan B: Tackle
I could also see GM Howie Roseman getting a head start on finding Lane Johnson’s eventual replacement.
Wild card: Trade up
Roseman has traded the Eagles’ first pick in seven of the last 10 drafts, so that’s always a possibility.
23. Minnesota
Pick: Trade up
If the Vikings trade into the top five for a QB, this pick will almost certainly be included in the package.
Plan B: Pass rusher
If Minnesota isn’t able to trade up for a QB, they’ll likely use this pick to find Danielle Hunter’s replacement.
Wild card: Quarterback
Edge rushers Turner, Latu and Verse could all be available at No. 11, prompting Adofo-Mensah to target Penix or Nix with his second first-rounder.
24. Dallas
Pick: Offensive line
The Cowboys’ O-line is in rebuilding mode after losing Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz in free agency. Barton’s versatility and Guyton’s upside make a lot of sense.
Plan B: Wide receiver
After CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks, there’s a significant drop-off.
Wild card: Defensive line
Micah Parsons has told owner Jerry Jones they need a pass-rusher on the interior D-line. Jones usually listens to his stars. This could be Darius Robinson’s (Missouri) ceiling.
25. Green Bay
Pick: Offensive line
Following the departures of David Bakhtiari and Jon Runyan Jr., refurbishing the offensive line is now a priority for the Packers.
Plan B: Defensive back
The versatility Iowa’s DeJean brings to the table would help reinforce a talented, perennially banged-up secondary.
Wild card: Trade up
GM Brian Gutekunst is armed with 11 picks, including five in first 91 selections.
26. Tampa Bay
Pick: Offensive line or pass rusher
The Buccaneers need to address the center position after former Pro Bowler Ryan Jensen retired and a talented, but raw prospect like Chop Robinson (Penn St.) would be hard to pass on if he’s available.
Plan B: Cornerback
The Bucs traded away one of their starters in Carlton Davis earlier in the offseason. Clemson’s Wiggins and Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama) could fill the void.
Wild card: Penix Jr.
Current Bucs advisor and Super Bowl-winning coach Bruce Arians loves Penix’s deep-ball acumen and toughness.
27. Arizona from Houston
Pick: Cornerback
I anticipate the Cardinals targeting a top-flight corner prospect on either the first or second day of the draft.
Plan B: Pass rusher
If the Cardinals land the best player in this draft (Marvin Harrison Jr.) with the No. 4 overall pick, they can gift coach Jonathan Gannon more talent for his defensive line if either Robinson (Chop or Darius) is available.
Wild card: Trade up or down
Ossenfort should be able to wheel-and-deal to his heart’s content with 11 total picks in this draft. This could be a spot where a team like the Commanders trade back into the first round for an offensive tackle like Patrick Paul (Houston) or Jordan Morgan (Arizona).
28. Buffalo
Pick: Wide receiver
After trading away Stefon Diggs and losing Gabe Davis in free agency, the Bills will have to replenish Josh Allen’s offensive weaponry.
Plan B: Edge rusher
This position is always on the table for Buffalo, considering the investment the front office has shown in the past.
Wild card: Trade up
If Thomas is available in the No. 20 to 22 range, GM Brandon Beane could jump up to grab him. Adonai Mitchell (Texas) would make sense if the top five receivers are off the board.
29. Detroit
Pick: Cornerback
GM Brad Holmes will continue to focus on building a talented defense, and the Lions recently released cornerback Cameron Sutton. McKinstry is the type of player coach Dan Campbell will welcome with open arms.
Plan B: Trade up
Holmes may target a pass-rusher like Latu, Verse or (Chop) Robinson to pair with Pro Bowler Aidan Hutchinson.
Wild card: Wide receiver
Detroit already has superstars at receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown) and tight end (Sam LaPorta), but Jameson Williams is still adjusting to the NFL. Keon Coleman (Florida St.) would provide another dynamic big target for Jared Goff.
30. Baltimore
Pick: Best player available
Trust me, if a prospect falls through the cracks, he will almost certainly end up with the Ravens. Illinois’ Newton and Iowa’s DeJean didn’t participate much in the draft process because of injuries, but both are in my top 12.
Plan B: Offensive line or wide receiver
Kevin Zeiter, Morgan Moses and John Simpson will all play for different teams next season.
Wild card: Trade down
This is another spot for the Commanders to target or a team wanting to catch a falling QB.
31. San Francisco
Pick: Offensive line
The interior O-line and right tackle are a major reason the 49ers are 0-2 against Chris Jones and the Chiefs in Super Bowls. Duke’s Barton, Oregon’s Powers-Johnson, Zach Frazier (West Virginia) and Roger Rosengarten (Washington) could all thrive in coach Kyle Shanahan’s system.
Plan B: Cornerback
The Niners’ top three corners (Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir and Ambry Thomas) will all be free agents after next season.
Wild card: Trade up or down
There aren’t a lot of holes on this roster, if GM John Lynch wants to make a bold move up the board.
32. Kansas City
Pick: Offensive line
Three tackles — Arizona’s Morgan, Houston’s Paul and Kingsley Suamataia (BYU) — all make sense. Andy Reid has never been shy about grabbing a prospect from his alma mater in Provo.
Plan B: Wide receiver
It looks like Rashee Rice’s legal troubles aren’t going away anytime soon, and Marquise Brown will be a free agent after next season.
Wild card: Trade up
Don’t be surprised if GM Brett Veach jumps up for a tackle or receiver.
